Senior wing Ochai Agbaji of Kansas will hear his name called in the 2022 NBA Draft because of his marked improvement after testing the draft waters after his junior season. He has grown in practically every area of his game and is worthy of being picked anywhere between 13 to 25.
During the 2021-22 season, he averaged 18.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.1 turnovers, and shot 47.5% from the field and 40.7% from three-point range. In the Big 12, he led the conference in points per game, win shares, and was second in offensive box plus-minus and in three-point shooting percentage.
The Kansas City, Missouri native was ranked 132nd in the 2018 high school class on 24/7 sports. Four years later, he’s named Big 12 Player of the Year, All-Big 12 First Team, a Naismith Award Finalist, and NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player.
Agbaji’s most valuable traits are his shooting coupled with his strong physical frame as a wing. High-level college shooters who also have a physique that is comparable to most NBA wings are an archetype that will be valued in the draft. His NBA floor as an NBA 3-and-D wing practically makes his translation to the NBA easier to foresee than other prospects.
Position: Wing Team/Class: Kansas (Sr.) Age: 22.16
From: Kansas City, Missouri Height: 6’5.75” Weight: 215 pounds Wingspan: 6’10.25” Vertical: 32 inches (standing) 41.5 inches (max)
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Shooting
The preeminent skill that Agbaji possesses is outside shooting, which he’s considerably improved from last season’s already solid 37.7%. He’s a knock-down shooter from all areas around the arc and gets up close to six-and-a-half attempts per game. His best spots outside the arc are the right corner (14 of 24) and left-wing (26 of 61). He puts the most fear in a defense when he’s shooting from a standstill, ranking at the 89th percentile (1.258 PPP) in overall catch and shoot.
Agbaji has a relatively fast, one-motion shooting form that is easy on the eyes since he barely has any wasted movement. His footwork is neat and the follow-through on his release is consistently strong with a high release. Due to the cleanness and consistency of his shooting mechanics, it is more than reasonable to believe that his stroke will be repeatable and easily stretch out to the NBA three-point line.
In the first 15 games of the season, Agbaji shot an obscene 47.5% three-point percentage That hot streak faltered as conference competition kicked in and opponents improved their defensive game plans. The drop in percentage is not concerning because what matters more is that he shoots over 40% on convincing volume in a variety of spot-up situations — stationary, off one or two-dribble pull-ups, in transition, dribble hand-offs, etc.
Agbaji does not have too many examples of pure off-movement shooting, running around screens at full speed and squaring up while in the air shooting. This ability is rare for players at the NBA level let alone college, but there is reason to believe he could develop that if he is asked to by an NBA team since his shooting form is great already.
Agbaji’s perimeter shooting remains effective even when defenses try to make life difficult for him. He will get face guarded when he has a hot hand, but he knows how to use a believable pump fake and patiently wait for his opportunity to strike once he has a slither of daylight. He also has good relocation instincts when a ball-handler on his team gets stuck.
Occasionally, Agabji will flirt with a pull-up three-pointer in a transition situation or when the defense goes under on a screen. However, that type of three-pointer is a smaller part of his jump-shooting diet. His mid-range jump shot looks good but does not fall nearly as often when he’s run off the arc. He doesn’t have enough examples of faking the three and then sidestepping to stay behind the three-point line compared to stepping below the arc, which is a staple move for shooters at the next level.
The only real caveat from his shooting profile that may lead to a tad bit of concern for Agbaji is his average free throw percentage. He shot 74.3% from the charity stripe and for his career, he is at 71.4%. Free-throw success is widely considered a reliable indicator of shooting prowess. The truly elite shooters in the NBA who make nearly 40% of their threes on good volume tend to hit at least 80% of their free throws. Not cracking 70% in any of his seasons at Kansas until now is worrying but not enough to disregard his overall shooting success and sound mechanics.
Impressive size and athleticism
Agbaji’s combination of size and athleticism makes his draft profile intriguing. He appears to have the prototypical size and measurables (6-foot-5 and 6-foot-10 wingspan) to be a wing in the NBA. He moves well at 215 pounds and has some nice leaping ability. He can shoot over defenders and has served as a lob target at times in Kansas’ offense, during inbounds plays or coming off designed back screens in the half-court. He’s also adept on leak-outs in transition, outrunning his defender for uncontested lay-ups and dunks. Agbaji’s physical tools make him a decent driver, much better in a straight line, who can get to the basket when a defender closes out hard on his shot.
The word “explosive” doesn’t accurately describe his athleticism. It's above average, but not dynamic enough to cross the “quick twitch” threshold. When there is congestion, he doesn’t appear as powerful a leaper or driver. However, Agbaji’s athleticism might be better displayed in the bigger and more spread-out court in the NBA. He is not too adept at lifting off from one foot with defenders contesting around the hoop, shooting 52.4% in the paint on 82 shot attempts. He did make 75.2% of shots at the rim on 113 attempts.
The biggest worry about Agbaji’s finishing is that he tends to go underhanded nearly every time a defender is in the vicinity of his lay-up. He prefers the finesse lay-up over the aggressive, overhanded finishes. That may not matter too much in college but if he slashes at an elite rim protector, his shot will be batted more often. Grant it, he will make most of his bones in the NBA as a spacer and not a rim attacker.
Low usage role and ball-handling
Agbaji’s high-level scoring is as primarily an off-ball player who doesn’t create too much off the dribble. He is more of a play finisher. The ball-handling skills he has are functional but are not good enough to run many pick-and-rolls at the NBA level, although he is at the 83rd percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler with it accounting for 9% of his total half-court offense.
Agbaji is not completely devoid of dribbling skill, but he does not display any assertive crossovers or slick moves that are outside of straight-forward drives. He isolates once in a blue moon, 2.5% of his offense, and is at the 16th percentile.
If the Jayhawk is guarded by a like-size player and is asked to create, he will not get a high-quality look unless the defender gives poor effort or bites on a shot fake. Agbaji can do things off of one or two dribbles, curling off a pin down, but that is the extent of his on-ball creation abilities. He will favor the pull-up over the hard contact finish in the paint and his driving is not good enough to bend an alert and together defense.
This lack of on-ball capacity is actually not a real downside as Agbaji’s talents suggest that he should be a non-playmaker with low usage. Currently, he doesn’t have a usage rate that far exceeds his teammates now at Kansas while he scores by far the most points per game. He picks his spots and if he doesn’t have it, he will keep the ball moving. The style of offensive player he is suitable to be is as a fourth or fifth-leading scorer on a winning team, which is valuable especially in the playoffs, instead of a primary or secondary option.
Passing skill
As a passer, Agbaji will not make advance reads. While he is unselfish and will give it up to the open man, he is a one-read passer that will not find a new option in a scoring position if he is in the role of distributor for a possession. He doesn’t average too many turnovers (1.6) because he is not tasked to be an initiator — the fourth-most assists on his team. He has a decent feel as a ball mover and may be able to grow in the area of passing as the NBA game slows down for him. Again, the role of a playmaker or distributor is not what he will need to fulfill in the NBA since he will be best utilized as a sniper from deep.
Size as a defender
Agbaji possesses a sturdy frame, strong enough to bang against wings and lean enough to keep up with some guards — a nice blend of strength and quickness, which translates on the defensive end. It’s fair to be confident in him guarding 2s and 3s in the NBA. He’ll have to prove that he can guard 1s as that is not something he was asked to do much of for Kansas.
Agbaji primarily was matched with offensive players who were positioned in the corner or in the wing and can comfortably switch on to other wings most of the time. He will be tasked to be the primary defender on an opposing team’s best or second-best scorer at the wing spot. In college, he did that and an example of that was defending fairly well Iowa State’s Izaiah Brockington.
On tape, it doesn't look like he gets derailed by on-ball screens. However, there are just not as many examples to confidently say he can stick with a starting-caliber pick-and-roll playmaker who uses multiple screens in the NBA. Judging based on his body type and ability to get in a stance, it is fair to bet that he should be tenable in those scenarios once he gains experience.
Disciplined on-ball defense
Something that may go under the radar on Agbaji is that he is disciplined as an on-ball defender. He doesn’t foul often (1.5 per game).
While his discipline as a defender is a strength, Agbaji does not make game-changing defensive plays that often. He will stay in front of like-sized players but will get a mid-range shot buried in his face, contesting a beat too slow when guarding someone isolating. Since he is risk-averse when guarding and not aggressively looking for blocks or steals, averaging 0.8 and 0.4, respectively, it’s unlikely he’ll be a high-level defender as a wing.
What will make Agbaji still a useful defender, however, is that he can be well above average on team defense. While he is not infallible since he will be beaten for cuts, he underwood correct positioning in Kansas’ scheme and consistently communicates. That is something that is expected though from a four-year player and should translate in the league.
He points out assignments and makes sure not to mess up switches. If there is a screw-up, it is rarely his fault. He does have impressive agility to recover on a rotation to close out on what could be an uncontested shot, and it is better coupled with his six-foot-ten wingspan. Agbaji’s attentiveness should bode well to be a fine team defender.
Something small that points toward good fundamentals play is that Agbaji regularly boxes out the offensive player closest to him when a shot goes up. He is not the most powerful wing but is strong enough not to be manhandled. However, he doesn’t have great rebounding stats — of players who have played at least 100 minutes on Kansas, he only has the seventh-highest rebounding percentage. This may also point to his tendency to leak out for a transition bucket instead of trying to rip a defensive board.
Intangibles and Miscellaneous
Agbaji appears completely aware and accepting of what his future role would be in the NBA. He took what he learned last year when testing the waters and made his leap, drilling perimeter shots at an exceedingly high level and regularly asserted himself on a championship-winning squad. He is uber-confident in the three-ball, shooting every time he is open regardless of how many shots he made or missed before his most recent look. If someone goes under a screen or lazily rotates to him in the NBA, the shot is flying.
Agbaji’s unselfishness also stands out combined with his decisiveness. He doesn’t keep the ball in his hands too long and will not jack up a shot because he hasn’t had a try in a while. He played within the offense that coach Bill Self ran and when he got an opportunity, he made sharp moves. If an offensive possession is lagging, Agbaji will make something happen with the pull-up or will relocate to a favorable area to score at a moment’s notice.
Agbaji has improved tremendously in his aggression from last year to this year and that clear improvement is appealing. A player who doesn’t have an ego and listens to the feedback he received and addresses it will curry the favor of NBA evaluators.
At 22 years old, his age and potential ceiling will weigh heavily as to where he ends up being drafted. He doesn’t appear like a completely finished product in any respect, but how much better can he get is a question teams will consider compared to younger prospects.
Personality-wise on the court, Agbaji is mostly even-keeled and doesn’t show frustration during game action.
Strengths
Good player out of spot-up situations, which accounts for the highest percentage of his offense (25.9%) and he ranks at the 93rd percentile (1.091 PPP).
Makes a higher percentage of his guarded three-point shots in the half-court at the 90th percentile (1.266 PPP) compared to unguarded three-pointers, which is at the 69th percentile (1.246 PPP).
Shooting mechanics are sound and should allow him to extend shooting range to the NBA three-point line
Instinctual relocation movement around the three-point line and is prepared to shoot regularly as shown by his volume of attempts
Strong frame and is a good athlete overall
Effective driver when coming off curls or attacking in a straight line when a defender bites on a fake
Lob target after cuts, during inbound plays, and in transition
Fits into a variety of situations because he spaces the court and doesn’t need the ball to effective
Has one of the safer floors of any draft prospects
Good finisher in transition, ranking at the 75th percentile (1.175 PPP)
Will not turnover the ball and won’t go outside of himself as a ball-handler
Weaknesses
Average shooting from between 17 feet and the three-point line in the half-court, at the 38th percentile (0.633 PPP)
Low free-throw shooting percentage (74.3%), especially for someone that will be expected to shoot 40% from beyond the arc
Not a player that is good at creating his own shot in isolation or off-ball screens
Not a good enough ball-handler to run pick and roll action, although his advanced stats may say otherwise
Ball-handling is functional, but not advanced enough to bend a defense with penetration
Will be an older player at 22 year old
While he has good measurables, his upside is not too high given his skillset and comfort as an off-ball scorer
Not a defensive stopper and will not get a lot of steals or blocks
Leans too much on finesse finishes around the basket (underhanded lay-ups) when a defender is nearby
Average passer and court vision
Final verdict
Agbaji is one player that should contribute sooner than most players in this year’s draft class due to his quality jumper and his prototypical size as a wing. He will not need time to get stronger. He already knows the one elite skill that will keep him on the court — shooting. He is 3-and-D to a tee that should fit as seamlessly as could be for a rookie.
The defense Agbaji plays is not game-changing when looking at the stats or trying to dig for clips of blocks and steals, but he is steady at staying in front of his man on the ball. He doesn’t have too much tape of him guarding a player at the point of attack where that is the most valuable form of perimeter defense against ball screen users in the NBA. However, the tools are there and it would not be surprising if he can hold his own at an above-average level.
Whoever drafts Agbaji will add wing depth, which is something every NBA team desires. He will fit in his role and won’t make a ton of mistakes. Due to his physical measurables, he won’t look out of place from day one and with his shooting being as good as it is, he’ll have a smaller learning curve than most.
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